Global tourism suffered its worst yr on record in 2020, with international arrivals dropping by 74% according to the newest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Destinations worldwide welcomed 1 billion fewer international arrivals in 2020 than within the earlier yr, due to an unprecedented fall in demand and widespread travel restrictions. This compares with the 4% decline recorded through the 2009 global economic crisis.
According to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, the collapse in international travel represents an estimated loss of USD 1.3 trillion in export revenues – more than 11 times the loss recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis. The crisis has put between 100 and 120 million direct tourism jobs in danger, a lot of them in small and medium-sized enterprises.
Because of the evolving nature of the pandemic, many nations are actually reintroducing stricter travel restrictions. These include mandatory testing, quarantines, and in some cases a whole closure of borders, all weighing on the resumption of the international journey. At the same time, the gradual rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine is anticipated to assist restore consumer confidence, contribute to the easing travel restrictions and slowly normalize travel during the yr ahead.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili mentioned: “Whereas much has been made in making safe international travel a possibility, we’re aware that the crisis is far from over. The harmonization, coordination, and digitalization of COVID-19 travel-related risk reduction measures, together with testing, tracing, and vaccination certificates, are essential foundations to promote safe travel and prepare for the restoration of tourism once conditions allow.”
The most recent UNWTO Panel of Specialists survey exhibits a mixed outlook for 2021. Almost half of the respondents (45%) envisaged better prospects for 2021 in comparison with the last yr, whereas 25% anticipate a similar efficiency and 30% foresee a worsening of results in 2021.
The overall prospects of a rebound in 2021 seem to have worsened. 50% of respondents now anticipate a rebound to occur only in 2022 as compared to 21% in October 2020. The remaining half of respondents still see a potential rebound in 2021, though below the expectations shown within the October 2020 survey (79% expected recovery in 2021). As and when tourism does restart, the UNWTO Panel of Specialists foresees rising demand for open-air and nature-based tourism activities, with domestic tourism and ‘gradual travel’ experiences gaining rising curiosity.
Looking further ahead, most specialists do not see a return to pre-pandemic levels happening before 2023. In fact, 43% of respondents point to 2023, whereas 41% anticipate a return to 2019 levels will only happen in 2024 or later. UNWTO’s extended situations for 2021-2024 indicate that it could take two-and-a-half to 4 years for international tourism to return to 2019 levels.
Asia and the Pacific (-84%) – the first area to suffer the impact of the pandemic and the one with the highest level of travel restrictions currently in place – recorded the largest decrease in arrivals in 2020 (300 million fewer). The Middle East and Africa both recorded a 75% decline.
Europe recorded a 70% decrease in arrivals, despite a small and short-lived revival in the summer of 2020. The region suffered the largest drop in absolute phrases, with over 500 million fewer international travelers in 2020. The Americas noticed a 69% decrease in international arrivals, following somewhat better results in the last quarter of the yr.
